THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-19-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
• Oil prices inching up but still below $100. • NYMEX natgas prices are up as much as $0.20 (+5%) this morning as the market seems to think the projected Storage Report will come in below expectations. • This morning's bump appears related to increased strikes in the Middle East. • LNG exports fall below 20Bcf/D for the first time in a week. • Global LNG losing approximately 73Bcf of supply per week. • Power prices are falling after a big rally in numerous ISOs yesterday. • Lingering power outages of around 1MM homes in the MidAtlantic/Mid-Con regions.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.16, High = $3.27, Low = $3.14, Current = $3.25
+$0.04 from 1 week ago -$0.85 from 1 year ago +$1.58 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.55 20-day avg = $3.02 9-day avg = $3.11
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.30 (R2) = $3.45 PIVOT = $3.15 SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.05 (S2) = $2.95
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.79 Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.35 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.40 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.48 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.47 Calendar '27 = $3.84 Calendar '28 = $4.67 Calendar '29 = $3.3 Calendar '30 = $3.62
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $5.03 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051 2025 avg = $3.103.
Market Data
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.2Bcf, -2.4% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.5Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 7.5Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 111.6Bcf, +4.7% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 111.4Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 14.6Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Clear skies for most of the U.S. except for the Pac NW. Extreme heat still in the West/SW, moving east into Texas.
10 Day = Even 8-14 Day = Even 3-4 Week = Bearish
April – June = Bullish May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Bullish
NE/New England = HDDs lessen as warmer weather moves in. 40s-20s. Mid-Atlantic = Modest HDDs fading out. 60s-40s. SE/Gulf = Spring like weather with an evening chill. 70s-40s. TX/S. Plains = Growing CDDs. 90s-50s. West/SW = Sweltering heat remains with rising CDDs and fire risk. 100s-60s. Pac NW/N. Plains =Rain, windy, and cold. 70s-40s. Mid-Con = Still a little chilly with warmer fronts coming soon. 70s-30s.
RIG COUNT as of 3-13-26:
Total = 553, +2 w/w. Oil @ 412 rigs, +1 w/w. Natural Gas @ 133 rigs, +1 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE – 3-19-26
Estimate = +39Bcf. Actual = +35Bcf Last year = -1Bcf. 5-yr avg = -29Bcf. +177Bcf compared to this time last year. +47Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,836Bcf. At 1,883Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.90Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 40% Nuclear = 19% Coal = 15% Hydro = 6% Wind = 12% Solar = 8%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1363. Resi = $0.1724
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-19-26:
CAISO = $25 - $33 ERCOT = -$38 - $0 MISO = $26 - $38 PJM = $35 - $40 NYISO = $40 - $57 ISONE = $168 - $187
CRUDE
2026 = $86.72, 2027 = $73.35, 2028 = $69.53, 2029 = $67.48
THE BOTTOM LINE
Weather remains in control of the market but there was growing speculation this morning as prices increased for no good reason. The Storage Report shows that earlier speculation may have been based on an injection that failed to meet projections.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie