THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-18-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil prices remain below $100.
- EIA's 2026 forecast on domestic crude production = 13.6MM B/D.
- Higher oil prices lead to more U.S. production, so we can expect that number to increase while the Iran issue continues. as tankers report safely navigating through the Strait of Hormuz.
- NYMEX natgas prices are up a tick this AM but remain flat on the week as direction seems set on tomorrow's storage report.
- Production continues to surpass the record setting pace set in 2025, reinforcing "a loose supply backdrop".
- There are a handful of pipeline constraints being reported, none of which are at crisis-level. The only one we're paying attention to is the El Paso/NNG interconnect.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.04, High = $3.08, Low = $2.92, Current = $3.05 -$0.06 from 1 week ago -$1.05 from 1 year ago +$1.38 from 2 years ago 50-day avg = $3.56 20-day avg = $3.02 9-day avg = $3.10
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.15 (R2) = $3.30 PIVOT = $3.00 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.90 (S2) = $2.79
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.74 Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.30 Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.36 Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.45 Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.45 Calendar '27 = $3.83 Calendar '28 = $4.66 Calendar '29 = $3.62 Calendar '30 = $3.61
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $5.03 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857 2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935 2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051 2025 avg = $3.103.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.0Bcf, +1.7% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 8.0Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 112.1Bcf, +4.2% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.5Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 134.8Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
The Mid-Con/NE/Mid-Atlantic are pushing up HDDs while the West/SW increase CDDs well above normal.
10 Day = Bullish 8-14 Day = Bullish 3-4 Week = Bearish
April – June = Bullish May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Bullish
NE/New England = Clear skies but still cold. High HDDs. 30s-10s. Mid-Atlantic = Cool and clear with moderate HDDs. 50s-30s. SE/Gulf = Starting off with record cold for some areas except FL. 60s-40s. TX/S. Plains = Spring like weather and near perfect. 80s-50s. West/SW = HOT with strong CDDs. Clear skies. 100s-50s. Pac NW/N. Plains = Rain as usual for the upper left corner. 70s-40s. Mid-Con = Starts cold, ends cold, with some flurries. 60s-30s.
RIG COUNT as of 3-13-26
Total = 553, +2 w/w. Oil @ 412 rigs, +1 w/w. Natural Gas @ 133 rigs, +1 w/w. Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, no change w/w. Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE – 3-19-26 Estimate = +46Bcf. Actual = TBD
Last year = +12Bcf. 5-yr avg = -50Bcf. +141Bcf compared to this time last year. -17Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,865Bcf. At 1,848Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range. Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.90Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
NatGas = 34% Nuclear = 20% Coal = 17% Hydro = 6% Wind = 13% Solar = 10%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1363. Resi = $0.1724
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-18-26
CAISO = -$37 - $32 ERCOT = -$28 - $14 MISO = $21 - $23 PJM = -$44 - $160 NYISO = -$30 - $48 ISONE = $36 - $39
CRUDE = 2026 = $85.65, 2027 = $71.55, 2028 = $67.89, 2029 = $66.17
THE BOTTOM LINE
Weather is the main driver right now and it's hitting on both coasts. CA Basis could be spared as Solar is producing at record level to meet record CDDs for this time of the year. We're looking at tomorrow's Storage Report to better gauge when the shortened Shoulder Season will begin and just how good it might be.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie