THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-13-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil remains above $90 but falling below $90 as early as June '26.
- Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
- NYMEX natgas prices losing support today even as a winter storm blows through the northern half of the U.S.
- The recent milder than normal weather slashed HDDs by 21%.
- "Geopolitical support" keeping prices elevated.
- Numerous unscheduled pipeline disruptions/constraints today and tomorrow, mostly in the Plains/Gulf regions.
- "Structural Load Growth" – get used to hearing that term on the power side as prices tick up with support from AI/DC growth.
- EIA has dropped their 2026 NYMEX average $3.80. That's a $0.50 drop in less than a month. Starting to think they haven't a clue…
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.25, High = $3.31, Low = $3.11, Current = $3.14
- +$0.04 from 1 week ago
- -$0.89 from 1 year ago
- +$1.15 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.60
- 20-day avg = $3.03
- 9-day avg = $3.07
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.35 (R2) = $3.50 PIVOT = $3.18 SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.10 (S2) = $3.00
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.89
- Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.48
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.47
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.45
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.42
- Calendar '27 = $3.84
- Calendar '28 = $4.62
- Calendar '29 = $3.63
- Calendar '30 = $3.63
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $5.03
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
- 2025 avg = $3.568.
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
- 2025 avg = $3.891.
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
- 2025 avg = $3.103.
TRADE DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 20.2Bcf, +5.4% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.5Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 112.3Bcf, +5.3% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 115.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 110.1Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Winter weather storm from the Plains to New England. "Heat dome" building in the West, 20-30 degrees above normal.
- 10 Day = Bullish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Even
- April – June = Bullish
- May – July = Bullish
- June – Aug = Bullish
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Falling temps and moderate HDDs. 40s-20s.
- Mid-Atlantic = CDDs turning to HDDs. 60s-30s.
- SE/Gulf = Mild Spring like conditions. 80s-40s.
- TX/S. Plains = Comfortable with minimal CDDs/HDDs. 80s-50s.
- West/SW = Early season heatwave hits the regions. 90s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Rain across the region, colder to the east. 50s-10s.
- Mid-Con = HDDs increasing with some storm activity. 50s-10s.
RIG COUNT
As of 3-6-26:
- Total = 551, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 411 rigs, +4 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 132 rigs, -2 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE
3-12-26 Estimate = -41Bcf. Actual = -38Bcf
- Last year = -64Bcf.
- 5-yr avg = -64Bcf.
- +141Bcf compared to this time last year.
- -17Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,865Bcf.
- At 1,848Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.90Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 41%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 17%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 10%
- Solar = 7%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1393. Resi = $0.1764
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:00AM, EST, 3-13-26:
- CAISO = -$504 - $25
- ERCOT = -$41 - $11
- MISO = $19 - $34
- PJM = $21 - $38
- NYISO = $39 - $42
- ISONE = $15 - $31
CRUDE
- 2026 = $84.86
- 2027 = $69.97
- 2028 = $66.45
- 2029 = $65.08
THE BOTTOM LINE
It's hot in the West and cold in the East. NYMEX prices aren't going to be the best today or by Monday. Basis remains cheaper than usual, so we can pick that up while we wait for NYMEX to fall. Also, if you're not paying attention to the summer forecasts, you should be.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie