THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-11-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil prices up again despite IEA stockpile release. Expect prices to remain bullish as long as Hormuz remains closed.
- NYMEX natgas was flat this morning leading up to the EIA report.
- EIA has reduced the 2026 NYMEX avg from $4.31 to $3.90.
- EIA believes increased production from Permian/Haynesville regions will offset new LNG terminals coming online in later 2026.
- Global LNG supply is now 73Bcf/D less and will remain so as long as Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG terminal remains closed.
- European storage levels @ 27% capacity, making it the lowest this time of year since 2022. Aggressive summer refills are priority #1.
- A "recession risk" is increasingly being priced into global markets, which could dampen industrial gas demand by late 2026.
- Stateside, natgas prices are up 5%-6% since the conflict began.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.23, High = $3.29, Low = $3.16, Current = $3.21
- +$0.16 from 1 week ago
- -$0.92 from 1 year ago
- +$1.12 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.63
- 20-day avg = $3.03
- 9-day avg = $3.03
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.35 (R2) = $3.50
PIVOT = $3.18
SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.10 (S2) = $3.00
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.87
- Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.48
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.42
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.43
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.39
- Calendar '27 = $3.81 Calendar '28 = $4.59
- Calendar '29 = $3.62 Calendar '30 = $3.67
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $5.03 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
- 2025 avg = $3.103
Key Market Data
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.7Bcf, +2.9% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.9Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.0Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 111.8Bcf, +3.9% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 112.8Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 108.4Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Severe weather for the South and East regions. Cold fronts moving across the U.S.
- 10 Day = Bullish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Even
- March – May = Bullish
- April – June = Bullish
- May – June = Bullish
Regional Weather:
- NE/New England = Falling tempos and increasing storms. 50s-10s.
- Mid-Atlantic = CDDs increase along with rain. 70s-30s.
- SE/Gulf = Warm with storms moving through. 80s-40s.
- TX/S. Plains = Chilly morning turns to hot afternoon & clear skies. 70s-40s.
- Mid-Con = HDDs increasing as cold front moves in. 50s-30s.
- West = Early CDDs showing up as temps exceed averages. 90s-50s.
- Pac NW/N. Plains = Warming but with rain across the region. 40s-10s.
RIG COUNT
as of 3-6-26:
- Total = 551, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 411 rigs, +4 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 132 rigs, -2 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE
3--26 Estimate = -41Bcf. Actual = -38Bcf
- Last year = -64Bcf. 5-yr avg = -64Bcf.
- +141Bcf compared to this time last year.
- -17Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,865Bcf.
- At 1,848Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.90Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 40%
- Nuclear = 19%
- Coal = 16%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 11%
- Solar = 8%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1387. Resi = $0.1759
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-12-26:
- CAISO = $27 - $81
- ERCOT = -$38 - $1
- MISO = $18 - $22
- PJM = -$64 - $30
- NYISO = $38 - $60
- ISONE = $69 - $72
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 10:00AM, EST, 3-12-26:
NG 19%, RE 18%, Hydro 12%, Imports 28%, Battery 15%, Nuke 9%.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Current conditions in the Middle East are clearly giving support to higher natgas here in the U.S. We have no clear sight as to when the disconnect will take place. One concern now is how much impact will it have on Shoulder Season. Will it be delayed, Will it be shortened? Will it show up at all?
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie