THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-11-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil prices are up this morning, sitting around $86 after hitting $91 overnight.
- NYMEX natgas prompt month sitting around $3.10, up as much as $0.10 on the day after hitting a 16-month low.
- Natgas is trying to be pulled in 2 directions.
- The reality is the fundamentals look strong for bears, but traders are getting bullish support from the "geopolitical" hype.
- There is no true support for the latter. Don't buy the hype.
- Tomorrow's storage report forecast ranges from -122Bcf to +4Bcf.
- LNG exports for 2027 now expected to surpass 22Bcf/D on avg.
- No pipeline or grid outages to report, planned or otherwise.
- Basis continues to be weaker than usual.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.06, High = $3.12, Low = $3.01, Current = $3.11
- +$0.16 from 1 week ago
- -$1.02 from 1 year ago
- +$1.38 from 2 years ago
- 50-day avg = $3.65
- 20-day avg = $3.03
- 9-day avg = $2.99
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.15 (R2) = $3.25 PIVOT = $3.00 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.92 (S2) = $2.80
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.71
- Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.32
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.25
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.41
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.38
- Calendar '27 = $3.76
- Calendar '28 = $4.58
- Calendar '29 = $3.65
- Calendar '30 = $3.66
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
- 2026 = $5.03
- 2025 = $3.45
- 2024 = $2.26
- 2023 = $2.73
- 2022 = $6.64
- 2021 = $3.84
- 2020 = $2.07
- 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
- 2025 avg = $3.568
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
- 2025 avg = $3.891
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
- 2025 avg = $3.103
MARKET DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.6Bcf, 0.0% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.7Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 112.8Bcf, +6.2% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 116.5Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 114.6Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Tornadoes/Hail/Heavy Rain/High Wind for the middle of the US remain in play today. Storms moving east.
- 10 Day = Bullish
- 8-14 Day = Bearish
- 3-4 Week = Even
- March – May = Bullish
- April – June = Bullish
- May – June = Bullish
Regional Weather
- NE/New England = Warmer temps giving way to cold and rain. 30s-70s.
- Mid-Atlantic = Warm for March with increasing clouds/rain. 60s-80s.
- SE/Gulf = Warm with scattered showers. 40s-90s.
- TX/S. Plains = Hot and stormy across the region. 40s-90s.
- Mid-Con = Highly variable with a mix of severe storms. 20s-70s.
- N. Plains = Cool with chance of light snow. 20s-40s.
- Pac NW/West = Rain to the north, above avg heat for the south. 40s-80s.
RIG COUNT
As of 3-6-26:
- Total = 551, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 411 rigs, +4 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 132 rigs, -2 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE
3-26 Estimate = -48Bcf. Actual = TBD
- Last year = -64Bcf.
- 5-yr avg = -64Bcf.
- +115Bcf compared to this time last year.
- -43Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,929Bcf.
- At 1,886Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.90Tcf.
- Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-26 = 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 44%
- Nuclear = 18%
- Coal = 15%
- Hydro = 6%
- Wind = 11%
- Solar = 8%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1363. Resi = $0.1724
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 11:0AM, EST, 3-11-26
- CAISO = $26 - $49
- ERCOT = -$7 - $23
- MISO = $25 - $50
- PJM = -$40 - $50
- NYISO = $36 - $41
- ISONE = $0 - $2
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 11:00AM, EST, 3-11-26
- NG 16%
- RE 40%
- Hydro 12%
- Imports 18%
- Battery 5%
- Nuke 9%
THE BOTTOM LINE
Mild weather, record production and earlier than usual storage injections are putting prices at the current range. Once we see cooling demand increase, LNG terminals added, and AI/DC demand increase, prices are going up.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie