THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE – 3-10-26
TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
- Oil prices see a $33 downward correction overnight.
- Yesterday's crude market showed the largest jump in 1 day and the largest collapse in 1 day, in history. That's a special kind of day.
- NYMEX natgas prices have corrected downward after the 4-day rally that piggy backed on oil rallies.
- So far today, prompt is down as much as $0.15.
- Qatar LNG is knocked out for now, reducing world supply by 20%.
- U.S. LNG growth remains on track.
- Power prices increasing with tightening demand.
- Weather is shifting once again and we could see demand drop again as cooler air hits the south, reducing CDDs but adding HDDs in the north soon after.
NYMEX
Apr '26 – Open = $3.02, High = $3.14, Low = $3.00, Current = $3.03
- -$0.11 from 1 week ago
- -$1.11 from 1 year ago
- +$1.38 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.68 20-day avg = $3.03 9-day avg = $2.99
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.15 (R2) = $3.25 PIVOT = $3.00 SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.92 (S2) = $2.80
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
- 12 months (April '26 Start) = $3.83
- Summer '26 (April – Oct) = $3.42
- Winter '27 (Nov '26 – Mar '27) = $4.39
- Summer '27 (April – Oct) = $3.42
- Winter (Nov '27 – March '28) = $4.38
- Calendar '27 = $3.79 Calendar '28 = $4.60
- Calendar '29 = $3.62 Calendar '30 = $3.63
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $5.03 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73 2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS
We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
- 2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $2.857
- 2025 avg = $3.568.
- 2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.935
- 2025 avg = $3.891.
- 2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March '26) = $3.051
- 2025 avg = $3.103.
SUPPLY & DEMAND DATA
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.4Bcf, -0.9% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.5Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.5Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today's Est. = 113.8Bcf, +6.5% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today's Est. = 118.7Bcf.
DEMAND – Today's Est.= 113.8Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
Heavy storms moving into middle of the country.
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10 Day = Bullish
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8-14 Day = Bearish
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3-4 Week = Even
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March – May = Bullish
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April – June = Bullish
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May – June = Bullish
NE/New England = Mild & sunny, cooler on the coast. 30s-70s. Mid-Atlantic = Warm for March with increasing clouds/rain. 60s-80s. SE/Gulf = Warm, spring like conditions w/storms coming. 60s-90s. TX/S. Plains = Hot, humid, storms across the regions. 50s-80s. Mid-Con = Very warm ahead of the storms coming. 30s-80s. N. Plains = Cooler but still mild for this time of year. 20s-40s. Pac NW/West = Rain to the north, warm to the south. 40s-70s.
RIG COUNT
As of 3-6-26:
- Total = 551, +1 w/w.
- Oil @ 411 rigs, +4 w/w.
- Natural Gas @ 132 rigs, -2 w/w.
- Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, -1 w/w.
- Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE
3-5-26 Estimate = -125Bcf. Actual = -132Bcf
- Last year = -106Bcf. 5-yr avg = -96Bcf.
- +115Bcf compared to this time last year.
- -43Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,929Bcf.
- At 1,886Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
- Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.90Tcf.
- Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-26 = 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION
- NatGas = 43%
- Nuclear = 18%
- Coal = 16%
- Hydro = 5%
- Wind = 10%
- Solar = 7%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1363. Resi = $0.1805
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-10-26
- CAISO = -$150 - $36
- ERCOT = -$11 - $38
- MISO = $22 - $29
- PJM = -$70 - $200
- NYISO = $26 - $30
- ISONE = $25 - $30
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 10:00AM, EST, 3-10-26
NG 17%, RE 25%, Hydro 11%, Imports 16%, Battery 22%, Nuke 9%.
THE BOTTOM LINE
These surges we're seeing on crude/natgas/gasoline are based on supply vs risk of potential loss. Natgas is produced here in the US with no additional MMBtu going out of the US. On natgas, we're fine. Crude takes 30 to 45 days to get from the ME to the US, so oil companies are pushing prices up based on replacement costs into the future months based on estimated length of war.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie