Natural Gas & Oil
March '26 Trading range: $2.89 to $3.07
NYMEX prompt month price predictions range from $2.50 to $4.00 for the next month.
To reach $2.50, we need warm anomalies across the Mid-Con and Northeast regions, with HDDs down as much as 20%, prompting an early injection season.
To see $4.00 natgas in the next month we need a late season, extended cold blast, supply tightness to unexpected levels, a surge in LNG exports, production disruptions, and stronger than normal power demand.
LNG
- Exports continue to outpace last year and last year's projections for Q1 2026.
- Most terminals are running at near full capacity.
- Europe is well below averages right now and may pull more from the US now that Hormuz is closed off for the foreseeable future.
- No maintenance is scheduled over the next month.
Power
PJM capacity is becoming tight with developers being incentivized to build new power generation.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – The weather, near record production, falling demand.
The Bulls – LNG exporting at or near full capacity, structural power demand.
Today's Special
LNG and weather will be the 2 main drivers over the next month - Shoulder Season.
An easy way to gauge this is to watch for the following:
- LNG exports averaging over 18Bcf/D = bullish, anything over 20Bcf/D = very bullish.
- Temps in the NE/Mid-Con regions staying below 40 degrees = bullish.
- Temps above 85 degrees for an extended period for the West/SW/TX/South regions = bullish.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap