Natural Gas & Oil
March '26 Trading range: $3.01 to $3.21
Natgas prices spent today elevated, once again on "geopolitical tension" from the Middle East.
The market is allowing natgas to mirror the movement of oil even with domestic supply considered to be solid.
Or maybe traders may have been buying the dip all day and by doing so ended up giving support for higher prices seen later today.
Oil also moved up today after Monday's collapse but remains under $90.
LNG
QatarEnergy and Shell declared force majeure on LNG contracts today after drone strikes halted production at the world's largest export complex, Ras Laffan.
Roughly 20% of global LNG supply is offline due to zero tankers moving through Hormuz over the last 10 days.
Here in the U.S., LNG exports continue to stay above 19Bcf/D this week, nearing 20Bcf/D.
Power
Power demand is up 1% y/y to 78,133GWh while prices are up between 5%-10% y/y.
ERCOT is expected to grow a whopping 11% in 2026 – the fastest among U.S. grids.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – The weather, record production, and a smaller than normal storage report tomorrow.
The Bulls – A mid-week cold front moving through the Rockies/Upper Mid-Con/NE regions pushing up HDDs, LNG exports, and more geopolitical premiums.
Today's Special – Get it while it's cheap
The most recent natgas price curve remains "summer-backwardation supportive" (said one of our go-to traders) with prices rising into peak cooling demand.
EIA has the NYMEX 2026 averaged to be $4.31.
Prices are well below that average, so we have to believe we are in for a very pricey second half to 2026.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap