Natural Gas & Oil
June '26 NYMEX NatGas Trading range today: $3.00 to $3.16.
NYMEX natgas prices hit a 2-month high today, breaking past the pivotal $3.10 marker.
The market increasingly sees Shoulder Season ending faster than previously expected.
Globally, oil supply continues to shrink as disruptions to Middle East production continues.
Oil prices have paused their recent rally on hopes of geopolitical de-escalation.
LNG
- LNG exports hit a 16-week low last week due to seasonal maintenance.
- Even with excess gas flowing over to C&I supply, prices found a way to increase.
- Another bullish factor from the great bull itself, the US now has 4 LNG tankers sailing to China after recent US-China diplomatic discussions.
Power
- Cooling demand increased across the ERCOT, SPP, Southeast, Mid-Con and PJM regions.
- Stronger evening ramp up pricing being seen.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – ($2.60 to $1.90 range) – Storage remains above the 5-year average, solar limiting daytime gas demand, LNG maintenance season extended for some terminals, moderate NE weather.
The Bulls – ($2.95 to $3.25 range) – LNG exports, hotter weather forecasts, deteriorating storage injections, growing CDDs, growing natgas generated power demand.
Today's Special – Evening Ramp Up
To be clear, when we talk about "evening ramp up, we're talking about major ISOs such as ERCOT and CAISO switching from solar (which draws down as quickly as the sun sets) to (mainly) natgas to meet overnight power demand.
Supply falls far quicker than demand, causing spot prices to explode.
Demand isn't increasing as much as supply is decreasing.
So, while solar continues to meet more daytime power demand, it also causes evening prices to spike.
Battery storage is helping to curb this ramp up but until we have storage that is larger and longer, ramp ups will be an issue.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap