Natural Gas & Oil
March '26 Trading range: $2.92 to $3.04
NYMEX prompt is roughly 13% cheaper than last month and 30% cheaper y/y.
Weather is keeping prices below $3.00 right now.
Basis in the West increasing but still posting negative prices through Nov '26.
Oil surges $6.00 in today's trading as the Iran conflict upends global flows.
LNG
While global prices surged 54% due to a 20% reduction in Qatari LNG supply, U.S. gains were capped as domestic export terminals are already operating at maximum capacity.
Power
Amazon, Google, Oracle, OpenAI, and others signed the Ratepayer Protection Pledge that requires the signees to build, bring, or buy new power to support their data centers.
In short, the hyperscalers will pay for all power generation & power needs for their data centers, negotiate separate rate structures, invest locally for workforce development, and utilize their infrastructure to backup power to local grids.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – The weather, record production, possible storage injections as early as next week.
The Bulls – LNG exporting at or near full capacity, structural power demand, and today's storage report showed a larger than expected withdrawal.
Today's Special
A recent study believes interregional transmission lines could save consumers billions with power plants in the Mid-Con/South/Plains sending power east.
The only problem with that is that power plants on the east coast that are enjoying record revenue stand to lose millions in projected revenue, thus trying to block such interregional connections.
NextEra blocking hydro coming from Canada and Entergy opposing links to the SE/TX regions are just a few examples.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap