Natural Gas & Oil
March '26 Trading range: $2.92 to $3.11.
Prices rallied in the latter part of today. Most likely due to focus on tomorrow's EIA report. With a projected injection in tomorrow's EIA Storage Report, we could be on the eve of 2026 Shoulder Season.
Oil keeps threatening to break past $100 as fighting intensifies in the Middle East with Iran. Saudi Arabia said it is now bypassing Hormuz, using the Yanbu/ Red Sea option instead, putting their shipments at 4MM B/D, still down from their average of 7MM B/D.
LNG
Exports continue to stay at/near full capacity.
Power
Power demand has increased roughly 2% every year since 2020 and it's starting to make an impact, especially with (play broken record now) growing AI/DC demand.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – Falling HDDs by week's end, record production continues, and a hefty injection tomorrow ranging from 26 Bcf to 40 Bcf is expected.
The Bulls – LNG exports staying at/above 20 Bcf/D, warm weather pattern holding firm out West before blanketing TX/South/SE regions next week.
Today's Special
Weather is the main focus right now more than any other price driving factor.
As much as there is early record-setting heat out West, most of the U.S. is experiencing a drop in HDDs (Heating Demand Days for those who don't pay attention) and has been for most of this winter.
We've had harsh, colder than normal blasts, but the long, drawn-out winter that keeps HDDs elevated never showed up.
Current weather, and projected weather for the next month, is allowing Supply to outpace Demand.
Not to mention, all these sunny clear days in the western half are generating solar like it can't stop.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap