Natural Gas & Oil
May '26 Trading range: $2.70 to $2.84.
NYMEX
NYMEX natgas prices fell 5% today, hitting the lowest prompt month price since Nov '24.
Downward pressure coming from the US-Iran ceasefire, forecasts calling for milder weather and weaker demand.
War fear premium still bleeding out.
Production for the past few days fell below average to a 2-week low of 108.9Bcf/D, preventing prices from falling further.
The drop in production is driven by production declines in Louisiana and Arkansas.
Crude falls to $95 and brent falls to $96 as tensions with news of a possible ceasefire.
LNG
- No major outages keeping capacity near full.
- Asia and Europe increasing their bids for US LNG.
Power
- Soft across the US with slightly less gas demand than yesterday.
- Renewables kicking up above average.
- Power markets failing to support gas prices anywhere in the US today.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – ($2.60 to $1.90 range) – Demand erosion continues, mild weather, war fear premium fading.
The Bulls – ($2.95 to $3.25 range) – LNG exports, dip in production, short coverings after earlier weakness.
Today's Special – Storage
The current storage levels sit nicely above last year and right around the 5-year average.
The market isn't pricing in a storage crisis just yet but it's definitely not comfortable with the level of surplus at the moment.
This all makes sense when we consider increasing power demand coming, LNG exports increasing, and RE still not creating enough reliable power generation to take the pressure off natgas power generation demand.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap