Natural Gas & Oil
June '26 NYMEX NatGas Trading range today: $3.09 to $3.22.
Natgas production for May averaged 109.4Bcf/D, slightly less than April's 109.8Bcf/D.
Pipeline constraints, weaker economics in some of the producing regions, and sub-$3.00 pricing slowing the urgency to produce are to blame.
The DUC (drilled but uncompleted) well count is historically low. Producers/traders look at the DUC inventory as a "ready reserve".
Oil prices continue to move on the latest headlines tied to the US-Iran conflict.
LNG
LNG exports have dropped to 4-month lows due to maintenance.
Luckily for us, this maintenance season is taking longer than expected to complete.
Power
Natgas remains heavily tied to ERCOT evening ramp ups, PJM's growing cooling demand, and the increasing SW/South/SE load growth.
Mid-Con load growth has been mild for the most part but that will change soon enough.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – ($3.05 to $2.80 range) – Storage staying above average despite smaller than forecasted injections, solar is crushing midday supply, weather models could shift cooler.
The Bulls – ($3.35 to $3.85 range) – Hotter mid-June forecasts, rising power burns, the tightening supply sentiment is in play.
Today's Special – Buy the Dip!
Many "experts" believe this currently over supplied, bottlenecked market is temporary.
Weather models are calling for intense summer heatwaves as soon as mid-June.
The days of ultra cheap NYMEX gas priced at or below $2.50 look to be over, with a $3.50 to $3.80 range projected over the next 24 months.
Right now, we're beating that price range for most months.
Summer panic will not provide a 7-day notice that it's coming.
It shows up without any notice at all, just like a bad neighbor.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap