Natural Gas & Oil Market Analysis - May '26 Trading Range

April 11, 2026 by Sean Dookie

Natural Gas & Oil

May '26 Trading range today: $2.62 to $2.68.

An easy gauge for the direction of natural gas prices is to look at Dec '26 NYMEX. As our good friends at EnergyRogue.com put it, if Dec '26 stays below the $4.70 mark, traders are comfortable with the storage levels through the winter. If Dec '26 moves above $4.70, there's fear in the market and prices could run up further.

Buy your Basis during Shoulder Season, especially this Shoulder Season. Negative Basis prices being enjoyed throughout the US.

Bears continue to dominate but the momentum looks to be slowing.

LNG

Still near capacity, acting as a floor stabilizer for natgas prices.

Any disruptions to US exports of LNG could cause a major downturn for natgas prices.

Power

Spent the week stable to slightly firm in pockets (northern rim & southeast).

Funny enough, power prices are not falling alongside natgas prices, giving power prices a subtle bullish undertone heading into summer.

Today's Drivers

The Bears – ($2.60 to $1.90 range) – Oversupply, production increasing, mild weather, storage is good.

The Bulls – ($2.95 to $3.25 range) – LNG exports maxed out, global LNG tightening, summer demand is coming.

Today's Special – Stranded Texas gas

We're seeing a lot of stranded gas in Texas right now. That gas comes up when drilling for oil, and they're drilling for oil like nobody's business right now.

LNG and Gulf demand is capped right now. It's got nowhere to go. We expect this to continue through the end of 2026.

It's great if you're behind WAHA. If anywhere else, don't get too excited about this because it's not dropping your price due to lack of connection.

So, regardless of booming production, if the connectivity isn't there, it does not matter.

More connectivity throughout the US is needed.

Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap