Natural Gas & Oil
June '26 NYMEX NatGas Trading range today: $2.75 to $2.92.
Natgas prices increased today, hitting an 11-week high.
The market is beginning to pay attention to stronger power burns, earlier than usual CDDs, and LNG long term.
For now, domestic natgas is essentially in a glut with near record production, good storage, weak spring demand, and LNG terminals that can't absorb surplus production.
Oil prices remain headline driven but finished last week down 7% from the previous week.
We should see this back and forth, up and down trend continue for the foreseeable future.
LNG
Freeport LNG is running at near full capacity after a temporary train outage taking place most of last week.
Freeport LNG can draw up to 2.4Bcf/D at full utilization.
Power
ERCOT load is up 14% y/y, and we haven't seen summer demand kick in yet.
Wholesale prices are up 8.5% y/y while Retail is up 7.5% y/y.
We're in the 4th straight year of increasing demand.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – ($2.60 to $1.90 range) – Storage up 7% y/y, demand is down, LNG maintenance still taking place, coal increasing, renewables increasing.
The Bulls – ($2.95 to $3.25 range) – LNG exports, producer curtailment, increased CDDs this week, and we're getting closer to that $2.95 rally point.
Today's Special – Summertime Power Generation
- Solar output will be elevated across the California, SW, and Texas regions.
- Wind generation is solid in the Plains and Midwest.
- Coal generation will be lower than winter levels but are still providing reliability support for MISO and PJM during ramp up periods.
- Hydro looks seasonally healthy in the Pac NW due to steady snow melting.
- And the big contributor to fill all other power generation gaps will be your favorite, natgas.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap