Warmer Weather and Cheaper Prices are coming
November 3, 2025 by Sean Dookie
THE ONE Minute Energy Update – 11-3-25
TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS
. NYMEX gas prices rally for the 3rd straight day on the front months.
. Back months are starting to come off.
. NYMEX gas prices stay at 7-month highs.
. Basis prices in the West weaken.
. Storage injections have been outpacing projections and historicals.
. Daily production hit 108.9Bcf on Halloween.
. Weather is one of the 2 big bulls right now but for how long?
. Winter weather charts STILL call for above average temps and milder than normal conditions.
. Cruder is mostly sideways this morning after a modest increase from OPEC and lack of direction being shown in the geopolitical world.
. Power prices in the Northeast/NE regions jump up big.
NYMEX
Dec ’25 – Open = $4.16, High = $4.29, Low = $4.08, Current = $4.14
+$0.15 from 1 week ago
+$1.46 from 1 year ago
50-day avg = $3.13
20-day avg = $3.44
9-day avg = $3.53
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $4.25 (R2) = $4.35
#PIVOT = $4.18
SUPPORT = (S1) = $4.14 (S2) = $4.04
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (Dec ’25 Start) = $3.99
Winter ’26 (Dec ‘25 – Mar ‘26) = $4.07
Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $3.91
Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.45
Summer ’27 (April – Oct) = $3.71
Calendar ’26 = $4.05 Calendar ’27 = $4.00
Calendar ’28 = $3.86 Calendar ‘29 = $3.73
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2025 (thru Oct ’25) = $3.431 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07
BASIS – We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2025 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through Oct ’25) = $3.41.
2024 avg = $3.458.
2025 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through Oct ’25) = $3.75.
2024 avg = $3.101.
2025 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through Oct ’25) = $2.96.
2024 avg = $2.56.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 17.4Bcf, +4.7% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.5Bcf
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.7Bcf
PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 108.5Bcf, +6.2% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 110.7Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 111.3Bcf
DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 103.5Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 100.7Bcf
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate
WEATHER FORECAST 4 THE NEXT 24 HOURS:
Pac NW = Rain increasing w/gusty winds. 30s-50s.
West/SW = Rain in NorCal, clearer & warmer for the rest. 50s-70s.
Rockies = Dry and sunny. 30s-70s.
Mid-Con/North Plains = Clear skies and warmer. 30s-0s.
Texas/South Plains = Warm & clear. 40s-80s.
South/Gulf = Clear & mostly sunny. 40s-70s.
Southeast = Rain fades, clear skies spread. 40s-60s.
Mid-Atlantic = Storms clear out. Cooler. 40-50s.
Northeast/New England = colder with gusty winds & rain. 40s-50s.
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Even 3-4 Week = Bearish
Nov - Jan = Bearish Dec - Feb = Even Jan – March = Even
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS:
Central Pacific = No activity.
Eastern Pacific = No activity.
Atlantic = No activity.
RIG COUNT as of 10-31-25
Total = 546, -4 w/w.
Oil @ 414 rigs, -6 w/w.
Natural Gas @ 125 rigs, +4 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, -2 w/w.
Last year at this time @ 585.
STORAGE – 10-30-25 = 71Bcf. Actual = +74Bcf
Last year = +79Bcf. 5-yr avg = +67Bcf.
+29Bcf compared to this time last year.
+171Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,711Bcf.
At 3,882Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasted avg for tomorrow = 3.97Tcf.
Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.95Tcf.
WTI CRUDE
Prompt = $60.98, 2026 = $60.09, 2027 = $60.36, 2028 = $61.29
POWER – Nat. Avg: C&I = $0.1312/kWh. Resi = $0.1747/kWh.
DAY AHEAD PRICING:
CAISO = $44.79 ERCOT = $36.29 MISO = $34.98
PJM = $24.77 NYISO = $49.25 ISONE = $43.36
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 7AM, PST, 11-3-25:
NG 38%, RE 20%, Hydro 11%, Imports 16%, Battery 10%, Nuke 5%.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Same as Friday - Spot prices and futures prices will remain highly reactive to updated weather models, EIA storage data, and LNG demand. We should see prices fall later this week due to milder weather. Be ready when they fall.
RFP ES provides energy management and supply for the following regions: Pac NW/West/SW/Rockies/TX/PJM/Mid-Con/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal @ RFP Energy Solutions,
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie