THE ONE MInute Energy Update – 4-13-26 TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS
. Crude and Brent are both up again after peace talks fell apart over the weekend.
. Brent up around $102. Crude up around $104. Both up 7%.
. NYMEX natgas prices are up slightly this morning but remain close to 17-month lows.
. Weak demand and rising supply are limiting upward movement.
. Production remains around 5% above this time last year.
. LNG exports remain at near capacity.
. Weather is keeping HDDs at a minimum with CDDs not yet causing concerns on trade desks.
. Scattered grid outages with no impact on trading. Pipelines are fine.
. Resi power prices expected to increase by 13% to 18% in 2026.
NYMEX
May ’26 – Open = $2.69, High = $2.72, Low = $2.64, Current = $2.64
-$0.21 from 1 week ago
-$0.63 from 1 year ago
+$0.93 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.07
20-day avg = $2.92
9-day avg = $2.79
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.00 (R2) = $3.05
PIVOT = $2.60
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.50 (S2) = $2.35
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (May ’26 Start) = $3.46
Summer ’26 (May – Oct) = $3.05
Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.04
Summer ’27 (April – Oct) = $3.29
Winter (Nov ’27 – March ’28) = $4.33
Calendar ’27 = $3.64 Calendar ’28 = $3.77
Calendar ‘29 = $3.58 Calendar ’30 = $3.59
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $4.54 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62
BASIS – We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.
2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April ‘26) = $2.580
2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April ‘26) = $3.504
2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April ‘26) = $2.593
2025 avg = $3.103.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 19.8Bcf, -0.2% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.2Bcf. Increasing July ’26 for Costa Azul LNG.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.1Bcf. Usually drops after winter demand.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 111.3Bcf, +3.9% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 119.3Bcf.
DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 93.3Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: Bearish to neutral across the US w/only significant demand coming from NW/Northern Tier.
6-10 Day =* Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish*
May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Even July – Sep = Even
NE/New England = Warmer with mostly clear skies. 70s-50s.
Mid-Atlantic =* Warm w/limited CDDs in effect. 80s-60s.****
SE/Gulf = Hotter than usual with CDDs creeping up. 80s-60s.
Texas/S. Plains = Warm and humid, supporting CDDs. 80s-60s.
West/SW = Pleasant temps across the region. Enjoy! 70s-40s.
Pac NW/N. Plains = Colder than normal with some rain. 50s-30s.
MW/Great Lakes = Warmer than normal w/storms to the north. 80s-60s.
RIG COUNT as of 4-10-26:
Total = 545, -3 w/w.
Oil @ 411 rigs, no change w/w
Natural Gas @ 127 rigs, -3 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 7 rigs, no change w/w.
Rig count 1 year ago = 583.
STORAGE – 4-9-26 Estimate = +43Bcf. Actual = +50Bcf
Last year = +57Bcf. 5-yr avg = +21Bcf.
Storage levels are 89Bcf compared to this time last year.
Storage levels are +87Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,824Bcf.
At 1,911Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasts: 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 39% Nuclear = 18% Coal = 15% Hydro = 7%
Wind = 11% Solar = 9% (peaks higher intraday)
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I = $0.1364. Resi = $0.1745
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 4-13-26:
CAISO = -$150 - $82 ERCOT = -$40 - $84 MISO = $14 - $30
PJM = $22 - $26 NYISO = $27 - $29 ISONE = $26 - $28
CRUDE = 2026 = $90.10, 2027 = $72.51, 2028 = $68.90, 2029 = $60.57
THE BOTTOM LINE
Geopolitical tensions and warmer weather in the eastern half are preventing NYMEX from falling right now. Weather charts calling for more bears by early next week.
RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.