RFF Energy Solutions Nightcap - Natural Gas & Oil Market Report
April 2, 2026 by Sean Dookie
RFF Energy Solutions Nightcap - Natural Gas & Oil Market Report
Natural Gas & Oil
May '26 Trading range: $2.78 to $2.89.
Prices may fall further tomorrow if the storage injection comes in above projections.
Oil prices changing by the minute depending on the latest news on the Iran War.
LNG
Exports close to and surpassing 20Bcf/D with more exploits scheduled.
Power
Most regions experiencing LDC rate increases this quarter with higher rates this summer.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – Limited CDDs, diminishing HDDs, strong production, larger injections expected.
The Bulls – Continued Middle East risk premiums, strong LNG exports, water restrictions for the SW/Rockies regions have begun and expected soon in California.
Today's Special – Powerless Regions!
The American Economic Liberties Project recently listed their areas of concern when it comes to regions not meeting power demand in the future, causing strong price spikes.
Let's start with ERCOT – an isolated grid that is facing surging demand from both AC and AI, compounded with severe weather and more natgas leaving the region via LNG.
The next is CAISO – while the state battles wildfires caused by above the ground power lines, an aging nuclear plant, the constant addition of RE hasn't yet been connected to the grid, and there is a lack of storage for the solar spill out during peak hours.
Next up is MISO – rapid demand growth and the retirement of coal plants and nuclear plants is no match for extreme cold weather and growing manufacturing activity in Detroit.
The last region should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention to the region's level of stupidity when it comes to energy management over the past 30 years, and that region is the Northeast/New England region.
A lack of natgas capacity and optionality from refusing to connect to one of the largest dry gas shales in the US with extreme winter and summer weather and a growing industrial demand all on an aging, poorly managed, stressed-out power grid system, has these two regions taking first prize for poor management and disservice to rate payers.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap