Natural Gas & Oil
May '26 Trading range today: $2.50 to $2.63.
Natgas saw a small rally today that isn't expected to go anywhere, keeping prices close to an 18-month low.
Natgas production has slowed over the past few weeks, falling by as much as 4.1Bcf/D. The main reason for this is slumping prices have prompted some of the mega producers like EQT to scale back.
Natgas prices are like a coiled spring right now. When it springs, look out.
LNG
This is the area that continues to quietly tighten up natgas supply and balances.
Power
Texas and South-Central heat, along with storms, drove prices today, not broad scarcity.
Early season heat is creating earlier than usual CDDs.
Pricing is expected to react and without any slow upward movement to give any fair warning.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – ($2.60 to $1.90 range) – Soft weather = light demand, strong injections, RE contributing.
The Bulls – ($2.95 to $3.25 range) – LNG exports increasing, summer is coming.
Today's Special – Dips are Seasonal
Don't sleep on the current downward trend in both Basis and NYMEX prices.
We saw prices jump nearly $0.15 today b/c some of the US felt a cool breeze on their neck.
What happens this summer when heatwaves roll through, snowpacks are depleted, wind & solar max out, no additional nuclear power is available, and coal is limited, and maintenance season takes place?
Natgas will be called upon to meet increasing power demand, but it will be limited as more natgas is clipped for the growing LNG exports. Ohhhhh, that pesky LNG…
It will take very little for prices to increase from where they currently sit.
That goes double for these delivery points that are posting negative Basis prices.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap