Natural Gas & Oil
March '26 Trading range: $3.05 to $3.49
Natgas prices ran as high as $3.49 before tumbling to end the day around $3.05.
Crude jumped to $119.50 earlier today – the largest 1-day jump on record before crashing down to $94.
Earlier reports of Hormuz being 100% closed have been changed to being 70-90% closed.
Gas stations aren't wasting any time taking advantage of this with prices in CA averaging $5.20 with some pumps around L.A. surpassing $8/gal.
Be thankful you're not filling up in Europe where it's $6.60/gal and climbing.
LNG
As soon as more LNG can be exported to Asia & Europe, it will be exported.
Between the US & Mexico scheduled terminals to be added in 2026, we could see an additional 5Bcf/D leave our shores.
Power
Power sales are expected to move up 2.6% in 2026 with the bulk of that new growth taking place in the TX/OK region.
Solar (with a dash of wind) is expected to meet most of that new generation demand.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – The weather, record production, storage reports expected to show injections ahead of normal.
The Bulls – Very limited today other than strong LNG exports and (what should be) a fading fear premium.
Today's Special
Natgas prices should settle back down once the financial traders stop panicking and realize natgas isn't connected as much as they think it is to oil prices.
Completely different driving factors when it comes to price direction.
Axios put it well today about natgas when they put it this way, "Unlike oil, the U.S. has no direct physical supply exposure to Iran. Current price strength reflects a 'geopolitical repricing' rather than actual supply disruptions".
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap