Natural Gas & Oil
May '26 Trading range today: $2.67 to $2.74.
Natgas spent today as flat as flat can be, opening and closing at roughly $2.68.
We could see prices fall as weather brings in more bears.
Oil prices are being driven by the SoH disruption and will continue to be disrupted until we have a clear and concise resolution to the conflict.
Brent finished up 5% while Crude finished up 7%.
California gasoline inventories have fallen to a record low, averaging 9.4MM barrels over the last weeks with the decline expected to continue.
LNG
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LNG exports dropped to only 18.9Bcf today, down as much as 1.5Bcf from recent highs.
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The EIA expects 2026 LNG exports to average 17.0Bcf, up from their 16.4Bcf/D forecast set in Jan '26.
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We expect it to average over 18Bcf/D for 2026.
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Terminals are considering deferring maintenance amid favorable pricing economics brought on by global supply disruptions.
Power
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The national average residential price is forecast to be $0.18 for 2026, up 37% from the 2020 average.
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Summer demand is expected to increase by 2.3% (roughly 10GW/D) in 2026.
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Warmer weather in Q3 2026 is expected to lead to 8% more CDDs than Q3 2025.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – ($2.60 to $1.90 range) – Weak weather, strong production, storage seeing strong injections, RE generation continues to keep gas demand lower than average.
The Bulls – ($2.95 to $3.25 range) – LNG export volume continues to tighten natgas supply, export terminals are growing, increasing CDDs are inevitable.
Today's Special – Colorado Grills
The governor of Colorado will be signing a recently passed bill that would allow residents to install plug-in or balcony solar panels without any utility approval/oversight.
Will it free up a miniscule amount of grid power or surpass the space heater for home fires?
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap