Natural Gas & Oil
May '26 Trading range today: $2.61 to $2.72.
Natgas continues to hover around a 17-month low with downward pressure increasing.
Basis around the US continues to fall due to lack of demand from weather.
Residential & Commercial usage combined today with an increase in demand of 7.3Bcf due to some cold snaps along the northern border and Northwest.
US announces a naval blockade on all maritime traffic moving through the SoH.
Oil prices jumped as much as 8% before falling, ending the day up 1% on Crude, 3% on Brent.
LNG
Golden Pass and Corpus Christi terminals stage 3 are ramping up with an additional 1Bcf expected to flow later this quarter.
Power
- Demand dropped today by 1.1Bcf as mild temperatures reduced CDDs.
- Power markets are torn between weaker demand for this time of year and high-cost long forecasts.
- ERCOT expects a 45% increase in wholesale prices this summer as AI/DC demand kicks in.
- EIA maintains an 8.5% increase in overall wholesale prices in 2026.
- Strong solar behind CAISO keeps prices suppressed.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – ($2.60 to $1.90 range) – Record supply, weak shoulder season demand, storage building nicely, no weather catalyst to report at the moment.
The Bulls – ($2.95 to $3.25 range) – LNG exports remain strong, cooling demand window is approaching, structural tightening later this year is getting more attention.
Today's Special – Crisis in the West is coming
Nevada's largest LDC, NV Energy, warned today that it needs 3X the power required to power all of Las Vegas just to meet the data center requests.
This surge will force LDCs to rely far more on fossil fuel, killing their promises of going 50% renewable by 2030.
Guess what? LDCs were never going to reach 50% RE by 2030 anyways.
This inconvenience will save them from failing to realize their commitment in the first place.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap