Natural Gas & Oil
April '26 Trading range: $2.97 to $3.12.
Today looked a lot like last Friday for natgas and it seems short coverings for the weekend, just to be on the safe side, is the reason.
We're closer to the bearish support point of $3.00 rather than the bull run mark of $3.30.
Even with a storage report that reported a withdrawal of 10Bcf above the forecasted 44Bcf, gas prices remain bearish in movement.
We're still 5% above last year's storage levels for this time of year and flat compared to seasonal average.
We expect larger than normal injections to be reported in the coming weeks as weather remains milder than normal.
Yesterday's report should show the last withdrawal of the season.
Both Brent and Crude saw decent upward movement this week. More is expected.
LNG
Exports are capping out right now.
We couldn't export more LNG if we wanted to, and we want to badly, as does the world.
Power
ERCOT/MISO/CAISO are all showing mild to moderate demand with no stress to report.
ERCOT and CAISO are both showing strong renewables generation this week.
No ISOs reporting any weather driven spikes.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – Continued mild weather, HDDs staying below average, no late season cold forecasted.
The Bulls – Continued Middle East risk premiums, LNG exports over 20Bcf/D.
Today's Special – Shoulder Season Hot Points!
The natgas market tried to rally this week and failed.
Fundamentals remain loose domestically.
Global factors are bullish but limited in our domestic market.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap