Natural Gas & Oil
June '26 NYMEX NatGas Trading range today: $2.85 to $3.05.
All those forecasts that were calling for cooler temps next week from Texas to Florida and up to New England just shifted warmer, causing the run up we saw today.
Natgas is no longer trading like an oversupplied shoulder season market. It's also not trading (yet) like a summer season.
This transition period is usually where volatility expands the quickest.
Oil wise, we are waiting to hear what comes out of the Camp David Cabinet meeting that started earlier today.
LNG
Traders are now pricing in LNG returning to full capacity in the coming days as daily exports are expected to stay above 18Bcf.
Power
Under the order of the DoE, PJM can soon curtail power to AI centers (that have backup generation) as a last resort before instituting rolling blackouts.
Today's Drivers
The Bears – ($2.90 to $2.60 range) – Short-term weather cooling down in most regions, production increasing, strong solar during the day.
The Bulls – ($3.15 to $3.50 range) – LNG exports increasing, summer heat is on the radar, breaking the $3.00 regularly now, technicals gaining summer strength.
Today's Special – West Bake
Power generation in the western half of the US increased 4.5% in the month of March y/y.
From TX to CA and as far north as ID, and everywhere in between, many parts endured the hottest March on record dating back to the 1890s.
California in particular endured the driest and hottest March in over 130 years, increasing concerns going into wildfire season.
This coming wildfire season is shaping up to be one of elevated concerns with even the Pac NW quietly returning to being a major concern.
The "Flash Drought" is the new warning sign for many. This comes about with one hot month, low humidity, strong winds, and poor overnight moisture recovery.
The droughts aren't going away. California needs a new approach to managing droughts.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap